A Coalition? How?
I can’t figure out for the life of me how any conceivable coalition at the end of next week could work. After next Thursday, the Lib Dems should win about 110 seats, should become the major power broker in British politics, and then should become the junior coalition partner in a government with either the Tories or Labour Party. But how?
Option 1: Clegg sees a Cameron minority victory determining his constitionally mandated choice. The Tories move to accept a more proportional voting system (at least in rhetoric), and a blue/yellow coalition is formed. But would the Liberal Democrat party members allow it to remain?
Option 2: Clegg finds a Tory victory unpalatable, doesn’t believe they’ll accept a proportional voting system anyway, and refuses to work with Cameron. The Tories resolve to try a minority administration (and won’t last long).
Option 3: Labour does far better than expected and Clegg decides a red/yellow alliance would make most sense for a progressive government (most of the electorate would have voted for one after all). But if Labour does well how could they countenance his Freedom Bill and withdraw the authoritarian state they’ve spent so long building? Would Clegg have to drop it or would they have to accept Prime Minister Nick Clegg? Surely that’s out of the question, but wouldn’t the former option kill off the Lib Dems in only one parliament? Their consistent showing in the opinion polls is proving their policies are popular, so why go back on this level of popular support? And if Labour doesn’t actually win, how could Clegg work with them anyway?
Option 4: Clegg decides to try a coalition with a rump Labour Party after a Tory drubbing. But who could he work with? If David Miliband, how could he work with someone who to this day is trying to keep Britain’s involvement in extraordinary rendition and torture secret?
It’s incredibly hard to see Labour winning this election. It’s also very hard to see how, in practical terms, Labour could change leaders, hang on as a minority, and do a deal with the Lib Dems to change the voting system. But that’s the last hope left for progressive political change. It rests on calm calculation, tactical voting and cool heads.
How on earth that is going to happen? My guess of the outcome remains unchanged: a Conservative minority administration, but with the Lib Dems the party of rebellion. They’ll be able to point out the shortcomings in a Tory Party desperate to withdraw the Human Rights Act, to ally themselves with homophobes and anti-Semites and resume foxhunting. They’ll be able to point to Labour’s authoritarian state, with the party’s rejection of the working class’ interests and its abysmal human rights record. They wouldn’t get proportional representation in the short-term, but they’d be able to make the case for one in the time until the next general election, which would be long in coming.
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